BRIGE: A Complex Adaptive Systems Analysis Approach for Integrated Water Resources Sustainability

Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station, College Station TX

Investigators

Abstract

PI: Zechman, Emily Proposal Number: 0926893 Policies to sustainably manage water resources are increasingly difficult to identify under conflicting objectives, a finite supply of resources, and escalating needs. Evaluation of management strategies must consider not only the design of interdependent infrastructure and environmental responses, but also the behavior and choices of consumers and decision-makers, as their actions impact system sustainability. A comprehensive modeling approach that captures these dynamics will provide better understanding of the complete urban water resource system and facilitate the development of more effective policies to address problems of water scarcity, water pollution, flooding, and ecosystem degradation. The goal of this proposal is to develop and test a coupled system of hydrologic watershed, surface water, water demand, and agent-based models (ABM) to simulate the complex interactions of individual home-owners and policy-makers with the natural and engineered water resources systems. Specific project objectives are: (1) Develop a modeling framework that couples watershed, surface water, and end-use models with agent-based modeling; (2) Demonstrate the applicability of the proposed integrated water resource model using a case study; and (3) Increase the presence of underrepresented groups in engineering and provide career-development opportunities for three researchers. The modeling framework will link a hydrologic watershed model, a surface water model of the receiving water body, an end-use model, water conservation models, and Low Impact Development (LID) models with ABM. Agents representing consumers will choose water conservation behaviors and lot-level LID strategies, and agents representing policy-makers will evaluate the sustainability of the comprehensive water resources system and choose economic schemes to improve conditions. Long-term simulation capabilities will be developed to study the evolution of water resources sustainability under population growth and land-use changes. The modeling framework will be applied for a case study in central Texas. As plans for dealing with an expected water shortage in this region are still being developed and debated, this area provides a relevant case study with issues including the need for conservation and storm water management; expectations for ballooning urban growth; and designs for large-scale infrastructure improvements. INTELLECTUAL MERIT: The proposed research will result in several contributions to the area of infrastructure management. The new modeling methodology enables the integration of social aspects with an environmental and water resources system. ABM provides computational capabilities to consider the social and behavioral aspects of sustainable management, and can be applied to enable more effective policy development and design decisions for many infrastructure systems. The modeling framework that is developed will provide the basis for future extension to comprise a larger water system, to implement more sophisticated adaptive agents that identify optimal rules, and to couple optimization algorithms for identifying infrastructure design. Research findings from the case study proposed here will shed useful insights for planning infrastructure and policy in other water-stressed basins. BROADER IMPACTS: This project will provide mentoring, research opportunities, and teaching opportunities for a post-doctoral researcher, a doctoral graduate student, and an undergraduate student. The undergraduate researcher and post-doctoral researcher will be recruited from under-represented groups. As part of the project, the post-doctoral researcher will gain teaching and mentoring experience and participate in a grant-writing workshop, which will lead to a future proposal building up on the proposed research. The proposed project will develop a research program in an unexplored area, leading to further theoretical advances in simulating water resource systems as complex adaptive systems. This research will have practical value to state and local agencies for managing large watersheds.